SEM-17-056- Baringa SEM PLEXOS Forecast Model for 2017-18

01 August 2017


Baringa SEM  PLEXOS Forecast Model for 2017-18

Today, 1st August 2017, the Regulatory Authorities (RAs) published the public version of the SEM PLEXOS Forecast Model for 2017-18 validated by Baringa Partners LLP, together with a report on the validation.  


This model is valid for SEM up until the point of transition to I-SEM.

The RAs use the SEM PLEXOS forecast model in the determination of Directed Contract outcomes and forecasting of market outcomes in the SEM. This model has been validated by Baringa Partners LLP, who updated the inputs to the SEM PLEXOS Forecast Model for 2017-18.

For further information please contact John Lynch ( ) at the CER or Brian Mulhern ( ) at the Utility Regulator.

Note:  The databases used for forecast modelling include the PLEXOS XML database with the validated generator technical data and model settings.  For those without access to PLEXOS, an MS Excel spreadsheet is also published containing the same technical data.  Interested parties should note that the variable operating and maintenance costs, running costs, mark-ups, and fuel costs are not included.  Parties should add estimates of their own as they see fit.  The zipped files also contain comma separated value (CSV) wind generation files, and all-island demand file, an ROI embedded generation file, a TLAF file, and a commodity price input sheet.