Today, the Regulatory Authorities (RAs) publish the public version of the SEM PLEXOS Forecast Model for 2016-17 validated by Baringa Partners LLP, together with a report on the validation.
The RAs use the SEM PLEXOS forecast model in the determination of Directed Contract outcomes and forecasting of market outcomes in the SEM. This model has been validated by Baringa Partners LLP, which updated the inputs to the SEM PLEXOS Forecast Model for 2015-16, up to the end of SEM.SEM-16-025 SEM MODEL_FINAL_Public_2016_17.zip
Note: The databases used for forecast modelling include the Plexos XML database with the validated generator technical data and model settings. For those without access to Plexos, an MS Excel spreadsheet is also available containing the same technical data. Interested parties should note that the variable operating and maintenance costs, running costs, mark-ups, and fuel costs are not included. Parties should add estimates of their own as they see fit. The zipped files also contain comma separated value (CSV) wind generation files, and all-island demand file, an ROI embedded generation file, a TLAF file, and a commodity price input sheet.